The "What Are You Thinking About Right Now?" PIP

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Missile launcher systems used against Ukrianian soldiers and civilians

 

 

These weapons look really old.

[SympathysSilhouette]

16 hours ago, Cult Icon said:

Besides addressing the US Congress today,  the URK armed forces immediately launched a few trivial counterattacks- and put up the results of Kherson Airport on social media showing burning Russian trucks & helicopters.

 

The way they are approaching their military messaging is clever and resembles Nazi propaganda in WW2.  Their cities are being bombed, thousands of civilians are dying, they lost a lot of ground, their counterattacks are very weak, Russians with air & artillery superiority, Russians creeping up everyday- but somehow they are winning the war and bleeding the Russian Federation/Soviet Union white! lol

 

Well to be fair, we haven't yet seen the kind of urban warfare in which large quantities of armor roll into say Kyiv.

That would be a game-changer for Russia, in terms of how vulnerable they would be in such a situation.

Ukraine now has such an overabundance of Javelins/assorted manpads/RPGs that almost every front line soldier has a shaped charge weapon.

We know from the battle for Berlin how much damage that can do. Stalin lost a ridiculous amount of men in the final weeks of the war, mostly because they were so vulnerable to small unit tactics and an overabundance of anti-tank weapons.

 

I think any kind of victory that Putin still gets at this point will be a very, very costly one. If the idea was to project Russia's military might, this operation was a failure of epic proportions.

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57 minutes ago, SympathysSilhouette said:

 

Well to be fair, we haven't yet seen the kind of urban warfare in which large quantities of armor roll into say Kyiv.

That would be a game-changer for Russia, in terms of how vulnerable they would be in such a situation.

Ukraine now has such an overabundance of Javelins/assorted manpads/RPGs that almost every front line soldier has a shaped charge weapon,

 

I think any kind of victory that Putin still gets at this point will be a very, very costly one. If the idea was to project Russia's military might, this operation was a failure of epic proportions.

 

 The main Russia strategic failure was not taking Kyiv in a lighting blitz operation.  So once the "special operation" failed it transitioned into a traditional war.  I think if the operation succeeded the Russians would come out looking very good.

 

However when I studied reliable sources I found that the Russian army, outside of its elite units, is not equipped for an offensive war.  The BTG is a defensive/short engagement type of organization with limited sustainability.  They were suited for the calvary charge/coup de main but not a high intensity long offensive like a divisional organization is.  So the BTG- as the core of the Russian army- has had logistics issues, leading to a creeping progress.

 

Mariupol has been the biggest urban warfare battle so far and it's been fought in the typical (modern, not WW2) Russian style with air force/artillery/missiles.  The Russians are very sparing of infantry. They started the invasion with very few of them.  In BTG doctrine what they do is they reinforce the battalions with a lot of Proxy/paramilitary infantry to screen their flanks/rear  (Eg. Syrians, Chechens, militas, etc.)  Theylevel cities block by block and mop them up.  They do this very slowly.  In Syria they supported their allies in this manner as well.

 

Basically the Russian way of fighting Urban warfare is to annhilate the city with firepower....The US is the opposite- in Iraq they tried to minimize damage to the Iraqi infrastructure and only leveled block after block when they had too.

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51 minutes ago, SympathysSilhouette said:

I think any kind of victory that Putin still gets at this point will be a very, very costly one.

 

So far it is unlikely that the Russian casualties are 10 times greater than the URK ones, or are material to the final result.  

 

100 BTGs only have 20,000+ infantrymen.  Meaning that the gigantic claims of the URK are highly dubious/lies and part of their propaganda and public manipulation strategy.  

 

Basically they lied to the Western media- knowing our ignorance & prejudice- and so a lot of the western public believe in their claims.  I wager that they knew that Western people who immediately think of the Soviets in WW2 and confuse it with the modern Russian army.

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My internet provider has banned Russian websites but I have heard that the "Special Military Operation's" deadline has been extended by Putin to April 15 2022. 

[Matt!]

[Matt!]

 

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UKR General Staff's/ISW reports of the situation 3/17/2022:

 

Mariupol is close to being captured.  The Russians deployed elite infantry (Naval infantry brigade- Russian marines) against the city today.

 

An encirclement pocket is starting to get formed in the North (Chernihiv and Kyiv).  There were also towns captured in the South.  The Russian naval bombardment across from Odessa appears to be a fixing operation, there will be no naval landing there. 

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

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Photos inside Mariupol:

 

 

Map from Russian sources:

 

 

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Russian mechanized infantry forming road blocks-

 

 

Drone footage of Russian unit moving through a village near Kharkiv-Sumy:

 

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_2289645

 

 

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progress in peace talks:

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-proposes-solution-end-ukraine-war-putin-zelensky-1688554

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Some of the Russian proxy/paramilitary forces, rather gnarly looking.  These are Chechen paramilitary in Mariupol.  According to the UKR general staff, they believe that the "40,000" Syrians will be largely used to police and hold ground, in order to free up the Russian army for offensive operations.  And they will be coming in batches of 300 men..  So my expectation was the same.

 

[SympathysSilhouette]

7 hours ago, Cult Icon said:

Some of the Russian proxy/paramilitary forces, rather gnarly looking.  These are Chechen paramilitary in Mariupol.  According to the UKR general staff, they believe that the "40,000" Syrians will be largely used to police and hold ground, in order to free up the Russian army for offensive operations.  And they will be coming in batches of 300 men..  So my expectation was the same.

 

 

These fuckers will commit so many war crimes.

[SympathysSilhouette]

 

 

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It appears the  Russian navy ships w/Russian naval infantry transports in the black sea are being used as platforms for launching long-ranged missiles, they hit Lviv  (near the Polish border) with several missiles, also hit URK military bases.

 

There is an interview with a Chechen commander, vet of the 2nd Chechen war. They are also using Chechens in house to house fighting in Mariupol. 

 

Two interesting developements from URK:

 

1.  Mariupol is encircled and cut-off and URK officials have stated that they have given up on the relief operation.  They don't even want to try.  The Chechen commander claims that 14,500 Russian/Proxy troops surround approx. 14500 URK forces in the city.

 

2. URK General staff has confirmed that they anticipate the Russians eventually launching an encirclement battle along the Dnepo river, which runs through Eastern Ukraine.  This river has been strategically important in WW2 as well.  The local counterattack at Mykolaiv suggest that they see this region as a pivot point.  However the Russians are finding the South easier to advance against than the North.

 

So my guess at the beginning war was correct- the geography is that obvious.  To do this the Russians would have to take Z-city, which they are currently massed in front of.

 

The consequences of a successful encirclement would be final defeat for Ukraine, as it would cut of Eastern Ukraine from the rest of the country, including the rail network.

 

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14 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said:

 

These fuckers will commit so many war crimes.

 

I bet a least some of them will desert and become EU illegal immigrants.

 

Certainly they will at least do a lot of looting...

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9 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said:

 

 

 

Both sides use Drones as recon for artillery/missile/air strikes.

 

Russian BTG can also be allocated a drone company.

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Some interesting developments from looking at Russian photos:

 

- Russian National Guard (militarized Police troops) have been spotted in the Ukraine.  

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Guard_of_Russia

 

-I also spotted FSB men

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service

 

Both services are a massive, it is likely that they will deploy more and more of them to occupy URK.  

 

Also it is interesting that there is indication that Chinese and Russian media narratives on the URK are much more closely aligned despite how different the two economies/societies are at this point.  

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footage taken inside Izyum, one of the critical towns that's being fought over.  the South end is still being held by the URK.

 

https://t.me/breakingmash/32866

 

 

-Also with Mariupol, there is a mixture of forces fighting for it now:  

 

150th Mot. Rifle division, Separatist milita regiment, Chechens and the newly arrived Russian naval infantry brigade.  There are other forces there that I am not aware of.  Yesterday a salient, including Gov't buildings, fell to the Russians.  I suppose this has something to do with the new reinforcement of elite infantry.