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Ukrainian units that attacked in their offensive 6/4-6/20th so far:
1st Brigade
1st Brigade
72nd brigade
56th brigade
57th brigade
24th brigade
3rd brigade
3rd tank brigade
110th brigade
59th brigade
79th brigade
23rd brigade
31st brigade
37th Brigade
47th Brigade
129th Brigade
68th Brigade
93rd Brigade
73rd Brigade
NATO trained Armored units, not used yet:
116th Brigade
33rd Brigade
21st Brigade
32nd Brigade:
118th Brigade
117th Brigade:
82th Brigade
Marun Tactical Group, unused.
4th Brigade
46th Brigade
71st Brigade
3 more units have been moved to the front, likely to be used. 71st, 33rd, 82nd.
Russian military claims 6/4-6/21: 245 tanks and 678 other armored vehicles destroyed or knocked out.
including 13 Western-style tanks, between 4 and 21 June
Russian military destroyed 42 MLRS systems, 10 fighter jets, 264 drones
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 13,000 men in the offensive attempt.
"Relying exclusively on quality is hazardous as during a prolonged war the quality of troops tends to even out as the inferior quality troops become battle hardened and learn their enemies' tricks.
The original quality troops get diluted with inferior replacements. This is why better armies are drawn towards strategies of encirclement as it better takes advantage of their (fleeting) qualitative superiority".
Svechin
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will form a “reserve army” by the end of June, form a new army corps, and reinforce key Western Military District (WMD) formations as part of intended force restructuring. Shoigu told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia is forming reserves for an unnamed army corps and an unspecified “reserve army” and adding five regiments to the 1st Guard Tank Army and the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army — both part of the WMD.[10] Shoigu noted that the five regiments are already 60 percent staffed and equipped as of June 22. Shoigu’s announcement likely confirms ISW’s previous reports that the Russian military command is forming the 25th Combined Arms Army with recruits from the Russian Far East and is establishing the 40th Army Corps as part of the Southern Military District (SMD).[11] The 20th Combined Arms Army is based on the northeast Ukrainian border and the 1st Guards Tank Army was (prior to February 2022) Russia’s highest quality army, making these formations the logical first recipients of new regiments. Shoigu previously outlined Russian efforts to conduct large-scale military reforms between 2023 and 2026 to optimize Russian Armed Forces for large-scale conventional warfare and expand Russian conventional forces on January 17, though as ISW assessed at the time Russia will struggle to fully staff and equip these large formations using existing force-generation processes.[12]
The Russian MoD likely seeks to mitigate this force-generation challenge at least in part with volunteer formations.[13] Shoigu claimed that Russia recruited 114,000 servicemen for contract service and 52,000 volunteers — noting that 1,336 people sign contracts with the Russian MoD each day and that Russia can form a regiment every 24 hours. This statement is not to be taken literally though since Russian regiments typically contain over 2,000 personnel.[14] Shoigu added that Russia is not committing volunteers because “there is no urgent need” to deploy these forces to the battlefield. ISW previously observed residents of the Russian Far East receiving messages inviting men to join the 25th Combined Arms Army, indicating that the Russian MoD seeks to directly recruit volunteers to staff its formations.[15] Shoigu also ordered Russian volunteer formations on June 10 to sign military contracts with the Russian MoD by July 1, which will also formally provide additional forces to the Russian MoD for its large-scale military reforms.[16] Russia’s previous attempt to form a volunteer-based 3rd Army Corps in summer of 2022 did not establish a combat-effective force, however.[17]
The Russian MoD is unlikely to fully formalize Russian volunteer formations by its stated July 1 deadline. The Russian MoD claimed on June 22 that four additional volunteer formations signed contracts with the MoD and that more than 20 volunteer formations have done so since the MoD began the effort to have all volunteers sign contracts.[18] The MoD previously claimed on June 10 that more than 40 volunteer formations are currently active
"since the beginning of the year, 114,000 contract servicemen and 52,000 volunteers have been recruited in the Russian Federation. On average, 1336 people (regiment) and 112 units of various equipment enter the contract per day. "
" this month "the formation of the reserve army of the Russian Federation and a new army corps with weapons of 3,700 units of various equipment is being completed."
"Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev clarified that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost more than 13,000 people since June 4 (approximately 17-18 battalions killed and wounded) in the course of offensive attempts. Also, the Russian military destroyed 246 tanks, including 13 Western ones, 595 armored vehicles, 443 armored fighting vehicles, 279 artillery and mortars, 2 air defense systems, 10 tactical fighters, 4 helicopters, 264 UAVs, 424 vehicles.
Voenkor Alexander Sladkov suggests that about 5 brigades out of 9 trained and equipped according to NATO standards have already been involved in the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "
"5 divisions (2nd,3rd,4th,47th and 144th) of the 20th Combined Arms Army and the 1st Tank Army, which were all 3-regiment divisions, are each getting their 4th regiment."
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023 PDF.pdf (understandingwar.org)
The Russian military is advancing initial efforts to stand up new corps- and army-level formations to implement Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s announced intent to conduct large-scale force restructuring 2 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023 by 2026, though these new formations are not yet staffed and operational. Independent Western open-source intelligence analysts began reporting in mid-May that Russian military authorities are actively recruiting officers and conscripts from Buryatia and Irkutsk to staff the new 25th Combined Arms Army.[15] The army HQ will reportedly be based in Yekaterinburg, Sverdlovsk Oblast.[16] ISW also previously reported on June 3 that Russia is forming the 40th Army Corps as part of the Southern Military District and actively trying to staff one of the corps’ motorized rifle battalions.[17] Efforts to construct and staff both the 25th Combined Arms Army and 40th Army Corps are likely part of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) implementation of intended large-scale reforms of Russia’s ground forces to optimize for large-scale conventional warfare.[18]
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on January 17 that he will implement Russian President Vladimir Putin’s directive to conduct large-scale military reforms between 2023-2026 to expand Russia’s conventional armed forces, likely in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine and also to set conditions to build a significantly stronger Russian military quickly. Shoigu stated that Putin ordered Russian authorities to increase the number of Russian military personnel to 1.5 million (from the current 1.35 million). Shoigu outlined that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will institute unspecified “large-scale changes” in the composition, complement, and administrative divisions of the Russian Armed Forces between 2023-2026.[1] Shoigu noted that Russia also needs to strengthen the key structural components of the Russian Armed Forces. Shoigu announced that Russia will reestablish the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, form a new army corps in Karelia (on the Finnish border), form new self-sufficient force groupings in occupied Ukraine, and form 12 new maneuver divisions.
Shoigu first foreshadowed aspects of this reform at the Russian MoD Collegium meeting on December 21 when he proposed that Russia form two new airborne assault divisions, three new motorized rifle divisions, and reform seven existing brigades of the Northern Fleet and Western, Central, and Eastern Military districts into seven new motorized rifle divisions while expanding five existing naval infantry brigades into five naval infantry divisions.[3] It appears that Shoigu did not include the reformation of five naval infantry brigades into divisions in his January 17 statement. It is unclear if that part of the plan has been dropped.
Shoigu claimed that Russia recruited 114,000 new contractors and 52,000 new volunteers in 2023 Jan-June (166,000 men). They currently receive 1,336 new recruits and 112 new units of equipment every day.
5 new regiments (presumably infantry?) added to the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army.
One new reserve Army and new Army corps will be completed at the end of June 2023 with 3700 units of equipment.
The new reserve army is the 25th Combined Arms Army and the new corps is the 40th Army Corps.
There are over 40 volunteer formations currently active.
By 2024, 5 new divisions and 26 brigades are to be activated.
7/3/2023
Ukrainian counteroffensive has gone on for 1 month now and there are still very little territorial results. They are approx. in the same positions that they were 3 weeks ago and stuck in front of the screening line.
The battle for the first month is just a game of wack-a mole, like World war two. The Russian forces immediately counterattack the breeches and seal off the penetrations. There are several penetrations across the front in Ukraine was nothing of note outside of the small wedge in the left wing of Z-Oblast.
This has cost NATO-Ukraine hundreds of armored vehicles and thousands of casualties. Russian casualties are at least over 1,000 as Russia admitted to over 500 casualties in the first two weeks.
So far the weak fire support of the Ukrainians indicates that they are running low on ammunition.
In Western press and US pentagon the excuse-making process has started.
Ukr chief of staff Zaluzhny claims that Russians have "10 to 1" firepower superiority and they are fighting the Russians "like with bows and arrows" due to lack of airpower. Ukr also ask NATO/US for countermeasures against the Lancet kamikaze drone which has destroyed many high value Ukrainian targets.
US Joint Chiefs Miley and Ukr defense minister give the counteroffensive a maximum 9 more weeks, they will be attacking in July -August and will stop afterwards.
Ukr military and political top are under pressure to produce results. They maintain that the main blow has not been used yet.
I agree, this is in-line with Soviet doctrine. Their problem is that they failed to produce any major breakthroughs and failed to secure major jump off points for the 'main blow'. Until then, their piecemeal daily attacks will deplete what they need for the 'main blow'.
At this point they have lost around 20-25% of their strategic reserve.
Ukr general staff claims that that Russians increased forces on the Kupiansk-Lyman front to 180,000 men.
Russian army has of 1/1- 7/4 a new inflow of 185,000 personnel including 109,000 reservists.
The Road With No Return (a. Sapkowski) - Free Download PDF (kupdf.net)
„The Road with no Return”, the second short story I have written was published in the year 1988, in the August issue of the „Fantastyka” magazine, so year and nine months after my debut „The Witcher”, published in the „Fantastyka” in December 1986. And the esteemed Reader needs to know that at that time I was trying to conceive a fantasy novel, that I was collecting various fragments of it, creating situations, characters, scenery etc. And two important things happened. First was how unexpectedly good was Witcher received by readers and fans. The second was to realize that short stories you can publish in “Fantastyka”, but no publisher will take a novel by a debuting in the genre Polish author.
You need to think soberly and realistically. When “Fantastyka” pressured a young promising new author, kindly asking the young promising for a second short story, the young and promising thought realistically and without much thinking without regret cut the pieces of the planned novel to the size of short story and thus “The Road …” was created.
The story at the beginning was not supposed to be connected to cycle about the Witcher Geralt – because I wasn’t planning such cycle then. Not In my wildest dreams. Later when the cycle began to be created I couldn’t escape the similarities onomastic and topomastic , suggesting this is the same Never Never Land. But I was still trying to avoid the obvious, - the best proof is that “bobołaki” and “vrans”, humanoids that show up in “The road…” don’t show in the Witcher, and there is almost no mention of them.
The idea that druid “Vissenna” from “The Road…” is Geralt’s mother came to me relatively late. It was supposed to be a small detail, “Twisting” the plot and storyline of the short story “Something more” ending fixup “Sword of Destiny” and binding together all previous 12 stories about the Witcher, and I confess honestly , without any pressure – felt remorse for the beautiful name Visenna. Which name I dug up, as many other from “Old Polish Encyclopaedia” by Zygmunt Gloger. Visenna came back to the cycle becoming Geralt’s mom. Mom a bit wayward, but nice and showing at Geralt’s life at the exact moment she is needed. Giving him, literally and metaphorically life for the second time. . Second protagonist of “The road” Korin, did not have luck to come back. He had a common name, -that I swear I created myself, I didn’t take it from C S Lewis, about Korin from “Narnia” cycle (Horse and his boy) I had remembered after the fact. “Narnia was too childish for me to come back often and remember all the characters. And the plot demanded loudly the witcher’s mother, the father was the second mushroom in the beet soup ( = unnecessary) The witcher’s pedigree on the male side did not bring anything and lead nowhere. So the idea that it was Korin from “the Road..” was Geralt’s father from “Fantastyka”, who liked this idea for the beginning of the comic book series. Maciej Parowski, the creator of the concept and storylines for the comic books liked “the Road ...”, said it repeatedly and put the short story in the “Co większe muchy” anthology in year 1992. Korin the protagonist of “The road” in the comic became the father of the witcher. The scriptwriter Maciej Parowski didn’t allow Korin to enjoy his progeny for long. Taking from the perversity of the author he adapted Parowski killed off Korin the next day after the passionate night of love with Visenna. Who is curious who, what, why and how it was at the comic book should see for himself, borrowing the archival issues from the collector.
Those who will do that need one more explanation. The idea for vran, humanoid with big red eyes I took from the cover of the SF book that I saw in Berlin bookstore. At that cover there was such a big and red eyed alien. I don’t remember the title, but it was published by Hayne Verlag, famous for artistic and tasteful artwork on the covers of their famous series. At the discussed comic book the cartoonist Bogusław Polk to the red eyes added Vrans the reptile physiognomy and the green husk, That is his own drawer’s “licentia poetica”.
At the end one more thing. When “The road was being published in “Fantastyka”, the already mentioned Maciej Parowski made some editorial corrections without consulting them with the author – who would be careful about the rookie. The victims of editor’s eraser were the phrases that are not allowed in fantasy, because “back then they didn’t talk like this”. In the published in Fantastyka short story I noticed with certain amazement that “pride” has replaced “arrogance”, and “intelligent” became " “smart” etc. Since I defend firmly the theory, that fantasy does not happen in any “back then” and archaization and stylization of language are pointless, from the version you will read in the moment I removed the corrections made by Parowski, and came back to the virgin manuscript. So you have “unabridged” version, as Angloaxons call it. I leave it to your assessment if the text gained by it or lost.
6/4- 7/15 In the NY Times Ukraine admitted to losing 30% of their armored vehicles in the counteroffensive.
7/24/23 : 29 out of 81 Leopard 2 tanks donated to Ukraine have been caught in photos and footage to be destroyed or knocked out.
really interesting newsreel